Cincinnati Bengals vs. Cleveland Browns Odds, Prediction & Pick

Bengals vs. Browns Odds

On Sunday afternoon, the Cincinnati Bengals and Cleveland Browns will meet on the shores of Lake Erie to begin their 2023 campaign. Both teams enter the new season with legitimate Super Bowl aspirations, but each have a tough road ahead of them in a talent-filled AFC North division.

Ahead of kickoff in this matchup, oddsmakers have priced the Bengals as 2-point favorites on the spread. The total for this contest is set at over/under 47.5 points.

Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.

Cincinnati Bengals

What to expect from and the Bengals’ offense

Earlier this week, became the highest-paid player in NFL history after signing a five-year, $275 million contract extension with the Bengals. Burrow has established himself as one of the best, young signal callers in the league, but that has not manifested itself against the Cleveland Browns. In six career starts against the Browns, Burrow is 1-4 with a 10-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He has been sacked 18 times.

The offensive line returns four starters, in addition to bringing Orlando Brown over from Kansas City to play left tackle. Brown graded well in PFF’s pass-blocking metrics in 2022, but allowed a league-worst 49 pressures in FTN’s charting. He will have to contend with Myles Garrett on Sunday. Jonah Williams is back, but he played every single one of his snaps at left tackle last year and is now being asked to play right tackle. Left guard Cordell Volson is back for his second season, but he was worse than the league average at his position in both pass protection and as a run-blocker in 2022. Simply, this unit is not as stable as it might appear on paper. Burrow is likely to be under heavy duress once again in this intra-division affair.

Bengals’ new-look defense

This past off-season, Cincinnati lost safety Jessie Bates to the Atlanta Falcons in free agency. He will be replaced by last year’s first-round draft pick, Dax Hill, who struggled mightily in limited playing time as a rookie. In his lone game with more than 19 snaps played last year, Hill allowed four receptions on five targets, including a touchdown. There is little doubt that Hill is a massive downgrade compared to Bates. Safety Von Bell also left in free agency, leaving the underwhelming Nick Scott as the team’s starter opposite of Hill. Scott ranked 86th out of 87 qualified safeties in coverage grade in 2022, per PFF. The Bengals are extremely vulnerable deep downfield as presently constructed.

Cincinnati is much stronger in their front-seven, with one of the league’s best linebacker corps and a strong defensive line that is led by Trey Hendrickson, B.J. Hill, and Sam Hubbard. Overall, this unit has its weaknesses.

Cleveland Browns

Which version of will we see on Sunday?

By all accounts, was nothing short of a disaster in 2022 after returning from his suspension. However, much of his struggles can likely be attributed to rust after not having played in an NFL game in nearly two years. According to PFF, Watson completed only 17-of-44 pass attempts when under pressure last fall, throwing two touchdowns and two interceptions. He was much better from a clean pocket, with respectable (albeit unspectacular) numbers across the board. Watson struggling with quick decision-making was to be expected last season. After a full off-season with his new team, we should see a much-improved version of Watson when he takes the field in Week 1.

Jim Schwartz takes over the defense

Last year, Cleveland finished 23rd in defensive DVOA, per FTN. Defensive coordinator Joe Woods was subsequently replaced by Jim Schwartz. The Browns then proceeded to add Dalvin Tomlinson, Za’Darius Smith, Juan Thornhill, and Rodney McLeod via free agency. They drafted Siaki Ika out of Baylor to beef up the interior defensive line.

Tomlinson and Smith are both plus-defenders against the run and address this unit’s primary deficiency from 2022 with proven talent. Ika is unlikely to be a Day 1 starter but should find a way to make a positive impact on a weekly basis for this group. Thornhill is listed as questionable for Sunday’s action, but McLeod solidifies the safety position with depth regardless of Thornill’s Week 1 status. This group is significantly improved heading into 2023.

Bengals vs. Browns – Pick & Predictions

Home-and-away splits are not as meaningful in the NFL as they are in other sports, but it is worth noting that the Bengals’ defense ranked second in the league at home last year compared to 22nd on the road, according to FTN. Though these types of splits do not often hold consistent year-over-year, there is little doubt that Cincinnati’s defense is less talented this season after losing both of last year’s starting safeties in free agency.

and the Cleveland offense are likely to be significantly better this season after a full off-season together, in addition to remolding the playbook to play better to Watson’s strengths. The Browns’ defense, though still not elite, is far from the dumpster fire that it was last fall.

At plus-money, the Browns have good value at home in this spot.

PICK: Browns Moneyline (+105, Fanatics)

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